Tam-sel In Distress

Nov 2, 2013 by

Tam-sel In Distress

No flash vote was the big news of the night and a decision that comes as a welcome relief as XF liquidity has been severely hit on Betfair this year on the weekly markets partly due to the flash vote change. The bottom 2 and bottom 2 combo markets should now be a lot more buoyant at least.

Plenty of red and black for Luke in trap 1 tonight for those who subscribe to that staging negative. But credit to him, he sang and performed the song well. And he received the plaudits of the judges.

This suggested immediately that Kingsland Road were likely in trouble from trap 2. After some authentic disco from Luke, this was lightweight stuff. And Nicole set the ball rolling with the negativity.

Tamera had her earliest positioning in 3 tonight. On disco night this all came across as a bit too slow and uninspiring. Vocal was fine, as usual, but it didn’t feel like a performance inspiring a big vote.

Sam C’s vocal was seriously exposed during ‘Relight My Fire’ with cuts to judges’ unimpressed facial expressions set up to help dig his grave. But all the criticism would have only encouraged his voters more. Probably safer than Kingsland Road after this.

Rough Copy as usual were vocally challenged throughout but this didn’t stop the judges telling us they were amazing. It all sounded like a desperate plea for viewers to get behind them.

The difference between Tamera and Abi tonight was that the Abi-fication of ‘I Will Survive’ was truly haunting and memorable. This was her shtick, well-executed. Initial thought pre-live show was Abi would likely be safe this week. Post-performance, even more convinced she is safe.

Nicholas was well and truly out of his comfort zone singing ‘Rock With You’. Far and away his worst effort but the judges were happy to talk him up which came as a surprise given the running order de-ramping he had endured in previous weeks.

We got the classic heart-rending VT for Hannah, as expected. And she was given a song, at last, that suited her deep soul tones. It was still shouty but this was the perfect song for her shouty style.

Sam B got the pimp slot and lots of love from the judges after her usual decent vocal. The Outright market is suddenly looking incredibly open.

TPTB clearly want a Kingsland Road vs Sam C bottom 2 but the value, as always, lies outside of this. More due to the fact the song was so low key and out of kilter with the evening Tamera could be in for a surprise bottom 2 appearance. We would advise taking the 10-1 Tamera bottom 2 with Ladbrokes. That’s now 8-1, cut during posting of this article. It still looks value. Make that 6-1. Cut again. Value probably still. Kingsland Road still look in the box seat to be eliminated.

33 Comments

  1. Jay

    Does Abi now become value for b2? Soft praise and redemption? Agreed on Tamar, was very little liquidity so was hoping to get bigger than 8s but that’s long gone.

    • Rob

      I would be very surprised if Abi is bottom 2. I think she has a decent fan base & probably won a good few more last night. Looking at the ‘first mentor to lose all acts’ betting, Nicole should be snapped up at 8-1 with bwin.

      You can easily make a case for Rough Copy, Sam B, Nicholas & Luke as finalists. Tamera could yet be too, but 8-1 is far too big esp. with a view to her possibly being b2 tonight.

  2. Abi is my dutch, but as Tamera is backed in, Abi will drift.

    Great dutching opportunities for KL elim / Abi bttm 2

  3. Quinn

    Rough Copy are far from “vocally challenged.” This was the best performance they’ve had since week one. What an idiot.

    • Rob

      This is DS style commenting, Quinn. By all means disagree but try and save on the insults. I would argue they have been off-key in parts every week.

  4. zoomraker

    who do you think goes if it’s kr v sam c bottom 2?

    • Rob

      I would think Kingsland R, zoom, as Sam C offers the show a lot more. He’s the cute solo male who they can easily cut when it gets to around last 6 or so, & would likely prove a popular draw on the tour. Maybe more so than Kingsland R.

  5. Tim B

    Let me add to the case for Tamera B2. She sang ‘Wishing On A Star’ which saw Austin Drage eliminated in 2007. A contestant’s vote share tends to drop off a cliff the week following a pimp slot, and we’ve already seen that happen this year with Hannah. Tamera had three very late slots prior to this week, which suggested she was not polling as well as desired. Gary’s damning comments last week will have harmed her vote as well. They sent her out in the perilously early slot of three, from which Hannah was B2 last week. So I am perhaps wondering if she’s intended to land B2 to bounce her to a respectable finishing position. With Hannah bouncing and Abi doing her thing quite well, I think Tamera’s in serious trouble, and I struggle to see her escaping tonight.

    Kingsland Road are a lock for B2 after that slot and the fact that producers rather amusingly took away their precious backing track, whereas Rough Copy and others got to keep theirs. The VT showed them struggling in rehearsals, so we were encouraged to look out for dancing mistakes.

    It all seemed a bit “End of Abi’s journey” for me, although she sang well and the treatment was mostly positive. I don’t believe she’ll be pulling in a huge vote, so expect to see her lingering towards the B2, if not in it.

    I think the judges went too far in the treatment of Sam Callahan. I totally agree that he’s safer than Kingsland Road, and if he is in the sing-off, then I would expect him to survive vs the boyband on deadlock.

    Everyone else is safe, I think, with Sam Bailey now looking like a serious contender to win. If Tamera really is struggling in the vote, I expect the producers to pimp the hell out of Sam B in the latter stages to ensure that Nicholas doesn’t win.

  6. Boki

    Guys, it may be my lack of experience in Scottish vote affairs but at this rate of improving/pimping I can easily see Luke outlasting Nic. Nis is really effortless and great singer but the songs he’s given worry me.

  7. Rob

    It’s the key latter weeks that matter with XF, Tim. These early weeks are just jostling for position and more importantly about staying in.

    I wouldn’t infer Tamera’s late slots = she has been struggling in the vote. It is more likely a case of the show trying to give a leg up to their most valuable post-show commodity.

    If it’s so bad for Tamera to be b2 this week, then it can hardly be any better for Hannah having already been b2. It’s pretty clear Sam B & Nicholas have been mopping up most of the vote to date.

    But they can both still be derailed later on if TPTB decide to go that way. Tamera has been the most consistent vocalist in the live shows along with Sam B and Nicholas.

    It was simply a poor song choice for her on a night that coincided with her being given the 3 slot. That may be down to nothing more than Nicole choosing a poor song for her.

    James Arthur has shown that being a former b2 is not necessarily a barrier to victory.

    • Tim B

      I forgot to add that they went a bit STAR CRAZY on Tamera, so that’s worrying for her. Also Sam C had his guns on display, which will help him.

  8. zoomraker

    have you got an email I could message you on Rob?

  9. Rob

    Another great week for this site. Hope readers got stuck in to KR for elim & Tamera to be b2. Just a shame they cancelled the flash vote as convinced KR would have been bottom.

  10. Frank

    Well done Rob. I always read your site with interest (first post today though!) My thoughts were exactly in line with yours this week, I couldn’t really see any other result.

    I really think Nicholas is looking like a shoe in for this competition, the 4/1 ew recently available was outstanding value.

    • Rob

      Thanks for posting, Frank. Glad you enjoy reading the site 🙂
      Your 4-1 Nick e/w is looking like a no lose bet.

  11. As you know from our discussion last night Rob, Tamera’s performance had an air of desperation; the song, backdrop and comments were shouting STAR CRAZY. When coupled with her run of late running order slots, the outcome seemed obvious. I jumped on at 17.0, but was limited by Fred 🙁

    Just one other note… for two weeks on the trot, monitoring twitter traffic at certain intervals has alerted me to the bottom two. Having being limited by Fred, I had a pop at Sky’s combo at 11.0.

    • Rob

      I find it hard to believe Syco did not know they were putting Tamera in jeopardy of bottom 2 this week. They are too sophisticated in their methods.

      You just had to see the slot she was in and the song choice on the night to see how vulnerable she was. The criticism towards Sam C was a massive call to arms for his fans.

      Tamera sang the song superbly but it was too downbeat and forgettable on the night, coupled with all the praise they directed towards so many of the other acts.

      I got 10s during the show Tamera b2. I was frantically writing up the article because I knew the price would not last. But 6-1 was still an amazing price.

  12. Boki

    Great call guys!

  13. Jay

    Excellent work Rob. Yet again you got it spot on. I got a lil sucked into Abi, going against what I said all week and wasn’t sure on the value on Tamara at 6.0 but cleaned up pre show and after show on kings to go. Look forward to next weekend. Thanks for the tip on 1st to lose all acts!

    • Rob

      Hope you got the 8-1 Jay. Just checking now Nicole is available at 6-1 which still looks a big price to me.

      • Jay

        I had a little nibble at Abi top girl at 19-1 last week. Not much liquidity in that market on betfair. Not sure if I should wait it out one more week or lock in some profit? The fear is that the other two girls will keep getting saved when b2 but Abi is unlikley to be given that grace

  14. Chiggs

    Finally thought I could share something useful this year. My recommendation is to buy Rough Copy to beat Hannah @ 1.9 on Bwin. Apart from the obvious reasons such as Hannah already appearing in the btm2, Louie’s repeated comment, “There has to be a place in the charts for you”, indicates RC are in line for a top 4 finish.

  15. Jay

    Rob any chance on a write up on where you see the outright book going to? Im trying to tidy my book up and am finding it hard to really pin point who I think the winner will be. My initial thoughts are between Nick and Sam B. What does worry me about Nick is that if he gets to the final then theres a clash with Andy murray winning SPoTY. Will he lose out on votes because of this or am i over egging the significance of that?
    Sam B is probably a deserving winer but is she really an x factor winner? Is she marketable in the long term ( does that even matter)
    Tamara is damaged goods to me, I dont think they can push her over the line, she just isnt likeable.
    They all but admited that rough copy have been voting poorly and hence needed to re image them this week, are they capable of a charge?
    I feel Luke is being strung along but at any time they can stitch him up. Hes almost a default plan D for them. Hannah isnt vocally strong enough, Abi could melt down at any moment and Sam C cant sing!

    • Rob

      I’m struggling to pinpoint the winner too, Jay, which is why I’ve levelled off to a large extent as things currently stand.

      You’ve summed up why it’s such a tricky year & why I am loathe to do an Outright summary looking ahead.

      As I wrote in my pre-series analysis, they all looked like they had a glass jaw this year & my thinking was they had set it up this way, & for the field to be weak, to make it easier to guide Tamera to victory.

      I am not as pessimistic as you that she cannot win. She could get a huge bounce & build from there. But I have been surprised they haven’t started to chip away yet at either Nicholas or Sam B.

      The one who got chipped away was ironically Tamera 2 Saturdays back when Gary completely destroyed her supposed last slot ramp by saying it was a Stars In Their Eyes performance.

      I can certainly see Tamera in the final with most likely Sam B & Nick but it is completely in the lap of TPTB.

      They seemed to be doing a massive Scot-ification of Nick to possibly try & limit his voting power further into the competition, & I had expected more cruiseship references for Sam B. Maybe they are still to come.

      The SPOTY clash on the Sunday could dent Nick’s vote a little if he’s in the last 2.

      My Outright book has largely been built around backing Tamera between 4 & 5.5, then laying off when she dropped to around the 2.3 mark.

      I’m an extremely risk averse trader when it comes to Outright tv betting markets. I’ve traded well this year so now have an all-green book. But I could not predict the winner at this stage.

      • Jay

        There seems something fishy with the whole Tamara thing. They royally stitched her up over the last two weeks, do much so that we all felt they had pushed her into the bottom two. Quite remarkable when they spent the first few weeks setting her up to win. I wonder if there’s something going on behind the scenes. Was there anything to be read into with Louis commented after sam C performed about some contestants not working hard enough? Is there an issue with the ex boyfriend who was working as her agent?

  16. Ravi

    BOOM as you say….another bank swell for Ravi off the back of TA ME RA bottom two. Great post Mr Entertainment you surely must be in retirement zone after another bookie bashing week on the ZFactor? Save your pounds and come visit my fine country I will buy you large spicy vindaloo as recognition of this fine work. My whole family think I am mad but I am telling you this is easier than working….new shoes all round.

    • Rob

      Good to hear from you again, Ravi. I recall your Eurovision postings earlier in the year.

      Nice to know you are turning a profit on XF. I have my fingers crossed your great sportsman, Sachin ‘The Little Master’, scores a hundred in his final test in Mumbai.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.