Tamera’s to Lose
The X Factor live shows get underway tomorrow night and the first question is, who is most likely to be thrown under a bus in week 1? With the flash vote coming after the 12 contestants have performed, and the first half hour of XF clashing with Strictly, it looks like we are back into the old scenario of early slots being coffin slots. The first 2 acts to perform will certainly look vulnerable of being at the bottom of the pv and announced by Dermot to be in the sing-off at the end of show.
The market thinks Lorna is the prime candidate to be first for the chop. She looks to have a poor song choice in the shape of Whitney Houston tune, ‘So Emotional’. Here is the list in full:
Abi Alton – Livin’ On A Prayer
Sam Bailey – Power of Love
Hannah Barrett – What’s Love Got To Do With It
Sam Callahan – Summer of ‘69
Tamera Foster – Ain’t Nobody
Luke Friend – Every Breath You Take
Kingsland Road – I’m Your Man
Nicholas McDonald – True
Miss Dynamix – Jump
Rough Copy – In The Air Tonight
Lorna Simpson – So Emotional
Shelley Smith – Alone
There is plenty of room for some real shockers among that lot and if Lorna is on early, 2-1 will look like value for her to be 1st eliminated. Before this song list dropped, the thinking here was that both Kingsland Road and Miss Dynamix could be the bottom 2 value, and this remains the case.
A week is a long time in reality tv world and having been sweet on Miss D’s chances in this series – and at least finishing as Top Group – a massive question mark now hangs over them due to SeSe’s pregnancy. This could be turned into part of a feel-good journey, of course, and we would not discount them from still having a decent run in this series.
Pointer Sisters ‘Jump’ looks a potential ideal show-opener though the same could be said for Kingsland Road’s ‘I’m Your Man’. Comparing those 2 tracks, we would be far more concerned for Kingsland R. It’s a really cheesy 80s tune, and they are a really cheesy boyband. The set and performance could accentuate this and with the likes of Luke, Sam C and Rough Copy vying for the young female vote, they could easily find themselves b2 if they have an early slot.
Without knowing the r.o. we would advise dutching Miss D at 8-1 for 1st elimination with Kingsland R also at 8-1 giving a potential 7-2 winner overall. If it ends up one of these groups vs Lorna in the sing-off our money would be on the group being saved. So Kingsland R at 11-2 and Miss D at 9-2 also make some appeal dutched in Skybet‘s Saved By The Judges market.
Luke, Abi and Rough Copy have scope to make those 3 tracks ‘their own’. Nicholas might already be being pigeon-holed as somewhat old-fashioned having been given ‘True’ – slow dancers possibly to accompany him on stage following a Tweet yesterday from the show producers. Shelley will belt out Heart’s ‘Alone’ as will Sam B singing Jennifer Rush’s ‘The Power Of Love’ (presumably). It looks like good choices for Tamera and Hannah, and possibly Sam C too.
This feels like a series Syco will be able to comfortably manage from start to finish – we expect to see a succession of clinical executions each week. Even Nicholas, with the weight of Scotland behind him, should be easy enough to dispatch, and the rather anodyne ‘True’ could be a way to ensure he doesn’t build any early momentum.
At the outset it looks between Tamera and Hannah. The view here, as previously stated, is that Hannah is in there to help soften Tamera. Tamera has also been teed up to go on a journey in connecting with the audience after Nicole’s little pep talk at judges’ houses.
Even with the makeover, Hannah is possibly too fierce for an ITV Saturday night audience and they will have to wring every last emotional drop out of her VTs to get her over the line first. Her big soul diva voice could easily start to sound very one-dimensional over a period of weeks and on paper she would appear to lack the vocal versatility of Tamera.
Syco have got Tamera’s negative press out of the way early and if there are doubts regarding Tamera there have to be far bigger doubts surrounding Hannah, along with the rest of the field. They all look like they have a glass jaw TPTB will be able to easily expose as and when they wish to.
Just a place in the last 3/4 will be enough for Tamera isn’t a view we subscribe to either. The most successful solo female act to come out of the show is Leona Lewis and TPTB are surely aiming for the same result with Tamera who has the looks of a potential global star in the making.
The fact is, she has very little to beat which is probably part of the masterplan. The field is so weak, in fact, it is a struggle to pick out a 3rd and 4th placer. Ahead of seeing the live shows, the order in which each contestant will be culled really does require a crystal ball, but here’s the 1-12 prediction just for the fun of it:
12th Lorna
11th Luke
10th Kingsland Road
9th Shelley
8th Rough Copy
7th Abi
6th Sam C
5th Miss Dynamix
4th Sam B
3rd Nicholas
2nd Hannah
1st Tamera
Who is your idea of first elimination and bottom 2 value? Are you in the Tamera or the Hannah camp? Look out for Sunday’s update when we will know the first contestant in the sing-off.
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Lads have some h2h XF series markets – 5-6 Sam B vs Abi looks a bit of value.
Hi Rob, I’ll start where I disagree with you this week. I’m very much on board with the sofabet school of thought regarding SeSe’s pregnancy. I think it’s far too much of a liability for the producers – can you imagine the press if she lost the baby due to stress/overworking? If they had to come down to a duo, this to me would be a laughable scenario for the Frankenband, much like when The Risk swapped a member in 2011. As a result, I’ve opposed them any which way I can. Was that your money I layed today at 4.0 for Top Group? I do think they may have gained some momentum after their impressive rendition of ‘Pure Shores’ but ‘Jump’ strikes me as far too cheesy for their demo, who will be hoping for another cool R&B track in the same style. Kingsland Road fans, however, won’t be surprised by their song, which could widen their audience this week to include nostalgic housewives.
Kingsland Road I think would sell plenty of tickets to the tour, which is why I can’t see them finishing any lower than 8th. They are, however, at risk of a bottom 2 appearance as early as this weekend, such is the terrible record for groups in week 1 of the show. Lorna looks a goner with that uninspiring song choice – expect the judges to claim it was “karaoke”. Therefore your tip of MD / KR ‘to be saved by the judges’ is sound. This is a market which I smashed last year, getting Union J a couple of times and even James Arthur.
I’m in the Hannah camp in the Hannah vs Tamera debate. For me it’s hard to see the latter ever topping the vote – I think perhaps she appeals much more to a youth audience whereas Hannah I can imagine all ages going for. She seems to be Nicole’s favourite and has already received the backing of James Arthur – could this be the beginning of every man, woman and dog who guests on the show claiming she is their favourite, a la James last year and Little Mix the year before? Time will tell.
I’d also like to highlight some value in the outright on Betfair: Sam C at 28.0 – 30.0 is far too big, and could make for an excellent trade if he avoids the bottom 2 for the first couple of weeks. As well as being a sex object and having the most twitter followers, he also has a regional vote to support him.
Hi Tim. That’s all fair enough. It wasn’t my request for 4, though I would see 4 as a value price. Rough Copy, at the outset, don’t appear as easy to like as the girls in Miss D. And Kingsland R just seem totally generic & pointless.
It’s all speculation on her pregnancy meaning they will have to get shot post-haste & I’d rather not dismiss their chances purely on health & safety grounds especially as they appear to have, granted a fair run, a lot of potential.
It is an 80s theme week, don’t forget, & it’s hard to think of any cool R&B tracks knocking around in that decade.
Hannah could well win (& I’d be happy if she did as I’ve backed her from 25s e/w all the way down to 8s) but all things considered I still think Tamera is a more likely winner.
The betting fraternity, & the XF obsessed on DS pour over every detail whereas I think the vast majority come to the lives with an open mind, and will be swayed purely on what they see during the live shows.
I agree btw that Sam C looks potential trade material around the 28 mark.
Nicholas would be dangerous if he got to final 3.
imagine if they want him out they will get rid of him before then.
I wanted to drop him out of the 3, zoom, & can see that easily happening. The way XF evolves you usually have a guaranteed 3rd placer who has only just squeezed into the final. This could be Nick or maybe Sam B. It looks the absolute limit for both imo. It looks a very weak year to me but I struggle see them getting behind Nick or Sam B at the business end.
If Nick makes the final, & the last 2 on the Sunday, there’s also an interesting clash with SPOTY on the Beeb that night, & a certain Muzza guaranteed to be the focus of a big Scottish vote.