Taxi for Abi?

Oct 25, 2013 by

Taxi for Abi?

There are a few too many imponderables to commit big time to anything pre-live show on X Factor this week.

Miss Dynamix will be coming back from the SeSe drama of last week but would the show immediately go all out on getting them into the bottom 2 by giving them the coffin slot in the 15 minute Strictly crossover? There is a chance of some viewer sympathy towards them already and TPTB may decide to milk that and give them a stay of execution for at least one more week.

They have Gabrielle’s ‘Dreams’ again. It was in the movie ‘Magnolia’ apparently and it doesn’t leap off the page as a great song choice. At least they have had plenty of time to work on it.

Miss Dynamix’s treatment could hinge on the sort of vote Rough Copy have pulled in following 2 advantageous late slots and plenty of glowing praise from the judges. If the public haven’t played ball, might we see a first de-ramp for them and the hint of a switch in allegiance among the Groups? ‘Everything I Do’ wouldn’t seem a natural fit and could signal a loss of favour.

Despite Shelley failing to escape the bottom 2 last week, you would have to expect Kingsland Road to do so, with the boyband likely to be bigged up by the judges this week and their teenage fans roused to vote for them. That said, ‘Pretty Woman’ hardly screams vote-winning triumph but at least it is uptempo.

Much intrigue surrounds Abi with stories of her being difficult in the house. She got such a hard time last week, would they be so cruel as to take her apart again? ‘Moon River’ could probably go either way, but you do worry that it might expose her vocal weakness and simply come across as too dreary.

Sam C and Luke look to have decent songs they could manage quite successfully and both, you sense, have built loyal fan bases. ‘Kiss From A Rose’ and ‘All I Want Is You’ offer some kind of credible ticket the judges can dine out on, though the latter U2 song will be the less well known to ITV’s Saturday night audience.

Then there is Hannah who, after a disappointing effort from the pimp slot last week, needs to up her game fast. ‘Skyfall’ is suitably dramatic to potentially work well but maybe her lower register could ruin it somewhat. Will a VT with Nicole visiting her former workplace in Greggs be a boost for her? It will be interesting to see how this is pitched.

Sam B, Nicholas and Tamera all look to have fine choices that should consolidate their position high enough on the public vote to be safe this week. Comments-wise, however, the phrase ‘one trick pony’ will already be scribbled on Nicole’s notebook regarding Sam B.

Given Miss Dynamix could, just could, be handed something of a reprieve this week, and Kingsland R are due a bounce, Rough Copy look a big price at 8-1 with Ladbrokes to land in the bottom 2. They are due an early slot, have a song that could well expose their vocal weakness, and their vote might not be robust.

There is a lot of competition for the younger female vote and you sense there may be more loyalty shown towards Sam C and Luke at this early stage. Shorn of excessive ramping by the judges, Rough Copy could easily find their vote falling off a cliff.

The other value bet looks to be Abi to finish bottom on Saturday at 5-1 with Stan James and the widely-available 4-1 to be next eliminated. On balance, ‘Moon River’ looks more likely to be a serious snooze-fest for viewers, she probably only just avoided the bottom 2 last week by the skin of her teeth, and TPTB may well be gunning for her.

Here’s the full song list this week:

Abi Alton – Moon River
Hannah Barrett – Skyfall
Kingsland Road – Oh, Pretty Woman
Luke Friend – Kiss From A Rose
Miss Dynamix – Dreams
Nicholas McDonald – In The Arms Of An Angel
Rough Copy – Everything I Do
Sam Bailey – My Heart Will Go On
Sam Callahan – All I Want Is You
Tamera Foster – Listen

10 Comments

  1. Tim B

    Hi Rob, to say that Sam C’s song is not very known to the ITV Saturday night audience is an understatement. I’m almost 27 and very clued-up on rock/pop music yet I didn’t know the song. In terms of the most-known and loved U2 songs, it probably wouldn’t be in the top 10. So how his tweenie fan girls are expected to know this and vote for it, I don’t know. It strikes me as a suspiciously poor song choice, so much so that I think he may be intended for the bottom 2 to be saved, as Kingsland Road were last week.

    Luke has a popular and credible song choice but I have doubts over whether or not he is vocally strong enough to pull it off. If he puts his own twist on it, as he said he wanted to with all of his songs, then he could be in trouble. Like Rough Copy, Luke is due a very early slot.

    Abi’s song may ring alarm bells to some, but I think it’s well-suited to her style. There was good money laying her for elimination yesterday, which I thought was a little suspicious so I tweeted about it. I then had a source DM me saying the report from Abi’s rehearsal was that it’s apparently very good, and they gave me her song choice, which has proven to be correct. She’s performing it solo with a guitar player accompanying her. The fact that she survived last week despite a dismal performance and treatment suggests that she has some support, so I’m laying her for bottom 2, hopefully with the option of hedging if she isn’t bottom of Saturday’s vote.

    Kingsland Road should bounce, as you suggest. Whilst not the best song choice ever, it’s more famous than last week’s ‘Marry You’ and it’s very Saturday night friendly, just like their week 1 performance which saw them safe.

    I’m more optimistic than you regarding Rough Copy’s chances of being safe this week. I think they’ll ramp them with the judges’ comments and I won’t be buying for bottom 2 unless the performance is poor and/or there is good value.

    Hannah has been granted a Licence to Thrill with ‘Skyfall’. This is a classy, multi award-winning and sophisticated number well suited to her voice. There’ll be no need for her to verge into shouty territory with this song, which also happens to be the only one from this decade.

    Sam B is likely to get the pimp slot with ‘My Heart Will Go On’, as Sharon is due some goodwill after losing two acts on the trot. Other than her, Nicholas would be the other potential to close the show with his funeral-friendly song.

    Tamera’s ‘Listen’ is obviously very safe for her, but if she doesn’t sing it as well as Sam B and/or Alexandra Burke, will the viewers pick up on this? She’s likely to be pimped to high heaven regardless of how well she sings it.

    Miss D – ouch. The same poor song choice as last week suggests producers won’t be granting them much sympathy or a change in their intended treatment. I will be amazed if they’re still around next week.

    My early prediction for the bottom 2 is Miss Dynamix and Sam Callahan, or perhaps Luke if he’s on earlier than Sam.

  2. Rob

    Thanks for the comprehensive post, Tim. There are a record number of lurkers who drop by here whereas you are among the few who actually bother to write anything 🙂

    That U2 song is up there with their best, I can assure you, but it is not their most commercial. I’ll grant you that.

    Sam C probably has a hardcore of teen fans so avid in their support it doesn’t matter what he sings at this early stage of the competition in terms of escaping bottom 2, would be my view.

    Interesting info on Abi. If you get some inside info like that, Tim, my advice – keep it to yourself!!! That’s dynamite info that gives you a potential edge.

    Hope you have got Tamera on side, esp. when she was trading at a remarkably generous price 5.5 last week on BF. This site stood alone in outlining the case for backing her. Obviously her price has since crashed after her excellent performance last week 😎

    • Tim B

      I should have added that I think Sam C and Luke are particularly in danger because many of their fans will be voting to bounce Kingsland Road, whom are likely the receiving better treatment this week than the solo Boys. The tweenie girl vote is very much overestimated at this stage, and the fact is that girls have more of a reason to be voting for KR this week. District3 and Union J were in the bottom 2 so many times last year and it is about right that one of the solo boys should land there this week.

      In regards to Abi, I wouldn’t want your readers being tempted to go in all guns blazing on her pre-show, when I had this info that I was happy to share. However, I often receive bits of info (such as running orders) that I know not to share. There’s also things I pick up from being in the audience at audition rounds. I’m quite well connected now and should be going down to the Sunday show as an invited guest soon…Hopefully next week.

      Unfortunately I’m not on Tamera in the outright, and looking now the value is on the lay side. If she goes odds-on (or close to) after this weekend then I will most certainly be laying. My exposure in the outright is pretty low overall, as I’ve done a fair bit of trading. Still have a huge green on Hannah though, so waiting for her to have a ‘moment’ and/or emotional VT sometime soon.

    • Rob

      It’s a great idea to build those contacts, Tim. Sam C was the last called safe last week, wasn’t he?

      I can see where you’re coming from in suggesting the young female vote is possibly not big enough to help all 3 avoid b2. At the odds though, I’d rather be backing Rough Copy to end up losing out on that equation.

      • Tim B

        He was indeed, and Luke was last to be called safe in week 1. I reckon Rough Copy have a slightly different, older demographic but I could be wrong.

  3. Jay

    I struggled last week, with the belief that the bounce would hold firm but think the whole miss dynamix thing scuppered mine and the producers plans. I would imagine that a preganacy related pull out from cece would get sympathy. However, she has come out and said it was a panic attack. She has gone from being a liability on the show due to pregnancy problems to now also being a liability because she has no bottle(Granted I am unsympathetic today). Also is they make the tour she will be entitled to be on maternity leave so will not be touring. I imagine that if they do end up b2 they are all but certain to leave and not be given the opportunity to bounce.

    • Rob

      You were unlucky Jay. They were probably aiming for a Kingsland R vs Miss D b2 last week. They may well be in the firing line again this week but not a lot of value in their price so was trying to look elsewhere.

  4. Henry VIII

    Rob don’t tell youngster Tim to keep it to himself but share it exclusively on this site 🙂

    Yes very much – to your Tamera question – and it was good to know your views on her, I thought I was alone at the time.

    The sooner Abi goes the better for me. I laid her rather a lot, at average 14.73 which is nice, but I have a lot of funds tied up in her.

    Hannah with Skyfall and Greggs VT, they must want her for the long haul even after last week’s styling catastrophe.

    • Rob

      Glad you invested in Tamera, Henry. You certainly need a big bank to get stuck in with your lays on the XF Outright on BF. Even if Abi gets through this week, as Tim’s inside info suggests she might, her days look numbered.

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