The Daily Star Factor
So much for red and black staging being a bad thing. There was such an abundance of it last night we briefly wondered if we had entered one of those strange David Lynch dream sequences in Twin Peaks.
We all focus minutely on the details of these X Factor shows in trying to figure out TPTB’s devious intentions but this year we are starting to wonder if they don’t really care very much who finishes in the bottom 2 out of nearly half of the remaining field.
They want to keep Ella, James and Jahmene for the latter stages of the series but beyond that we’re not sure they are all that fussed. Yes, in the short-term they are keen to keep this boyband battle going but it is starting to feel like most of them are being played with like a cat with a half-dead mouse.
But let’s start with Jahmene. That they are resorting to such a full on sympathy edit as early as week 3 suggested to us he must be bombing in the public vote. We were thinking this is great news for our advised lay of Jahmene in the Outright market, until we read this Daily Star story today suggesting Jahmene was 2nd in last week’s public vote behind Shaky Baloney.
We previously considered the Star’s earlier report regarding Chris topping the public vote as an exaggeration of the truth but given its excellent track record with voting leaks and the more substantive details provided in this story, we think this may well be accurate.
As lovers of a good conspiracy theory, however, we would also like to moot the possibility the Star, now aware of its reputation in reality tv betting circles, is lying through its teeth for the sake of an in-house gambling coup.
Having advised a back of Chris to be next eliminated at 3-1, we would adopt a safety first approach now and suggest laying him to be in the bottom 2 on Betfair as short as you can muster below this price. He got the old death slot of first up on the night, and the comments were of the ‘killing me softly with kindness’ type, but in light of the Star story it would appear his tabloid dismantlement will probably have to continue next week.
We had expected Club Classics to play to Rylan’s strengths but his moment on the show felt like a bit of an anti-climax. It wasn’t the kitchen sink job like the week before, and we are far from confident to call him safe. Lucy performed well enough and got a reasonable edit but she really is looking the proverbial one-trick pony and could also be in danger.
Jade got some sore throat sympathy but it was a far from engaging performance by her, while Kye got a back stage working over by his own mentor Gary who basically hammered home the point to viewers that his effort last week was an out-of-tune disaster.
Post-performance the judges tried to big him up but Kye as a contestant seems a lot like Jade in the sense it is all rather forgettable. His staging was very odd making him look like a Guy atop a giant bonfire with enough flaming red imagery going on to scare the bejesus not just out of him but also viewers sat at home. So we could not call Kye safe either.
MK1’s performance started well but the switch to Tinie Tempah’s tune didn’t really pay off. It was very much a case of constructive criticism for them so again, they have to be in the mix for bottom 2.
If you had an investment in Jade at 7-1 and Lucy at 5-1, to be in the bottom 2 as flagged up here on Friday, you’re in a pretty decent position, especially in terms of Jade as she now trades at a best price of 9-4.
It’s a very tricky week to call – any 2 from 5 basically out of Kye, Lucy, Jade, MK1 and Rylan if we are to believe the Star, with Chris also in the mix if not. But all things considered we will be looking at trying to sniff out some bottom 2 combo value involving Jade, MK1 and Rylan.
Let us know your views and maybe together we can solve this week’s perplexing bottom 2 puzzle.
Rob Furber
I don’t think Lucy is in the mix for bottom 2. She clearly has a big following and she smashed it last night imo. Bottom 2 for me is definitely Rylan plus one of MK1, Jade and Kye. The latter’s treatment was once again very confusing. Awful VT of Gary telling us how bad he was, absolutely terrifying red and black bonfire staging. But then a good enough performance and very positive comments. What on earth are they playing at with him? Very bizarre. I’m really hoping Christopher gets through, not because I have any money on him (I don’t) but it will be some confirmation that singing first is a good place to be. MK1 to go for me, very shouty vocals from Charlie and it was quite painful to watch. But they’d have to find a way of saving Rylan…
Well, market was really in panic with Malonie’s bot2 and elim odds almost identical. I just can’t believe he’s topping the vote last 2 weeks.
Hi Tim. Yes, think you are probably right that Lucy did enough to escape bottom 2. Like you say, a very difficult night to figure out, especially regarding Kye.
Starting to think Rylan will avoid bottom 2. From a value perspective, UJ not the craziest punt for a bottom 2 appearance. They are all probably fighting over very small percentages with nothing in it among maybe the bottom 7 or 8.
It does seem hard to believe, Boki, but the Star has a frighteningly good record with these leaks.
Would have expected Ella to be a fair way clear, & would have expected Jahmene’s vote to be a lot lower. Very confusing, & little unnerving for Jahmene layers, given last night’s massive ramp-athon for him 🙂
Hi Rob, first I want to quote a famous betting site:
‘1. Treat Daily Star voting leaks with respect – It was early November 2009 when we latched onto the Star’s vote leak that claimed Chris Hollins had been smashing the public vote in Strictly. Our readers ended up being rewarded with a 28-1 winner. The flipside is, Russell Grant was claimed by the Star to have won the public vote most weeks in last year’s Strictly. This story ran the day after Grant’s shock elimination at Wembley Arena in week 8. What is assured following such Star vote leaks are price movements on Betfair you can take advantage of.’
Can you please explain me the meaning of Russel Grant story if it came after his elimination? Thanks.
Ha, ha – well spotted Boki 🙂
With Strictly being filmed on a Saturday night, the result was not known of that night’s vote when the Daily Star ran its story regarding Grant which appeared the following day.
So Grant may well have topped the pv most of the previous weeks but this was the show when they fired him out of a cannon & it clearly became too contrived for viewers & they abandoned him.
Firstly well done on the Jade tip for B2 Rob.
I wish I’d joined you.
2/1 to lay now on betfair, so a nice free bet and some profit if you like too.
As for the Star story, I believe it. They’ve never been proven wrong on XF and I’d be very surprised if they’re looking to land a betting coup.
There’s just not enough money in the market to make it worthwhile.
TvPolls which has proven the best poll over the last couple of years, has also shown him doing well
So I’ve laid Chris for B2.
As for other bets, on my twitter figures MK1 have gone from top group last week to bottom group this, so I’ve backed them for elim.
Tulisa deramping them not a good sign.
D3 on the otherhand have gone from bottom to top band on my figures so look well safe.
If D3 swallow up most of the boyband vote then that could leave UJ in trouble, so I’ve backed them for B2 @ 20.
Rylan appears to be gaining support, despite a performance that most people on betfair slated. So I’ve laid him for B2 too.
Love the Twin Peaks shoutout, Melanie’s performance last week had me waiting for the dwarf to wander on from behind the red curtain. (Really need to watch series 2, I only watched series 1…)
I agree with Tim regarding the bottom 2 and that Lucy should easily be safe. My personal feeling is Rylan/Kye with Rylan going. His problems from week 1 have returned (terrible vocal, no humour, charisma or sense of fun, didn’t appear to be enjoying his performance). Kye had a dangerous late slot with odd staging and song choice – visually and tonally, it reminds me of Melanie last week.
Hi fiveleaves, which tvpolls do you consult?
If I do a survey on http://tvpolls.co.uk/results/xf2012aw3hop.asp for week3 I see only 237 people voted and Rylan and Chris seem to be in most danger of bot2 followed by Jade.
Not according to that link Boki?
Chris in 4th on 11%
I’d be happy if they’re right with Mk1 bottom and UJ 2nd bottom
Ok, true, it depends which table you look at. But 250 people really doesn’t mean much.
They’ve been excellent over the last couple of years on all of these shows, despite the relatively small numbers.
It all looks too close at the bottom in the ‘vote to save’ poll to draw any strong conclusions, but MK1 and UJ are in the mix.
Being high in the ‘who you think is in danger’ poll is generally a good thing, as it means those who like an act they feel is in danger are more likely to vote.
@fiveleaves – Very brave at laying Rylan for bottom 2! Christopher has to be a lay for bottom 2 for me. His fan base is silent but deadly. Reminds me of when Ulrika Jonnson won CBB when there was hardly any support for her anywhere online and IIRC was something like 12/1 to win on the day of the final.
That looks a shrewd analysis regarding motivation to vote because of an act being perceived in danger. Didn’t Louis say he thought Jade & Rylan were at the biggest risk of bottom 2 – so motivation right there for their fans…?
Still cannot decide regarding Kye though clearly he is far from safe.
Great spot on that poll Figleaves! I’d backed UJ for B2 before and now I feel even more confident.
Well done Mr Leaves – lay of Chris & Rylan for bottom 2, plus elimination bet on Kye = great week for you 🙂
Close but no cigar for a few this week I imagine with Jade called safe last. Looks like we were all in the right vicinity & hope all who posted here had a reasonable week given all the shouts for MK1 & Kye being in the mix for bottom 2.
*elim bet on MK1 rather
Cheers Rob.
It more than makes up for my strictly losses.
I held my nerve and didn’t lay any MK1 in the sing off either.
I made them a 1.4 shot then, so couldn’t.
Only losing bet was my speculative bet on UJ.
Next week maybe. Though they could be the chosen group again.