Volatile Stocks

Oct 31, 2018 by Rob

A big gamble on LMA Choir was snowballing prior to Sunday night’s vote reveal with them trading as third favourites, being matched as low as 11 on the Outright, and yet they ended up the 4th act eliminated. This highlighted not only the volatility of X Factor trading this year but the general sense of the market having little clue.

Bella, one of this year’s most volatile X Factor stocks, was also backed down to as low as 7 before Saturday’s live show only to go flying back out to 20+ after her rap-heavy rendition.

Misunderstood were backed below 4 only a couple of weeks ago and now trade over 12, while Dalton was available to back above 7 prior to Saturday night and now resides at 2.8, having been matched as low as 2.3. And let’s not forget Brendan who was being matched below 5 ahead of this year’s live shows, and who now resides on Betfair at 48.

If you managed to play your cards right, this has been a trader’s dream, but it ultimately hints at a very fragile market this year, a thin-looking field and a fair degree of straw clutching going on.

The market has started to now respect the chance of the two feel-good, voting magnets in Anthony and Scarlett. You have to think they are both flying high on the pv as things stand. With Scarlett’s family’s caravan home burning down this week, they should have a ready-made sympathy VT for her lined up for Saturday.

Scarlett does risk being shoehorned as a one-dimensional big belter, however. Of course, this didn’t stop Sam Bailey winning the show back in 2013. Anthony continues to be generously critiqued despite a poor rendition of ‘I Want To Know What Love Is’ on Saturday and some truly strange styling.

Dalton stole the show with ‘I Have Nothing’ which was lauded by the judges. One dilemma the show has this year is both Dalton and Shan being such similar balladeers. If Shan was advised to add in that preachy, pre-song moment, that would spell trouble for her long-term chances.

There is a strong hint of the God-botherer about Shan. Buyer beware: who can forget the visit to Jahmene Douglas’s Bible Life Church in Swindon in 2012 which went down about as well with viewers as a house visit from door-stepping Mormons on a Sunday afternoon.

One of the Girls should be in the firing line this weekend if they want to even up numbers and so far Molly has looked persona non grata. She endured the classic late-song-choice-change-to-a-more-unsuitable-song tactic. But another poor song choice for Bella and she will also look vulnerable.

Among the Groups, United Vibe endured a brutal takedown while Misunderstood were again underwhelming and vocally poor. Acacia & Aaliyah were the best of the three on the night and could feasibly end up the last Group standing.

The pimp slot couldn’t save Janice. She wasn’t aided by her misfired Anglophile plea for votes when she told viewers, ‘There has not been a day in the last 23 years when I haven’t thought about the love and joy that I have infected into this country.’

The Overs is now a head-to-head between Danny and Gio. One of these two will need to be ramped to ensure Ayda has an act in the latter stages. Given their respective treatments up to this point, and the fact Gio can at least bring something different to the show putting his rock spin on tracks, he looks likely to outlast the Benidorm Belter, despite Danny clearly having a vote base. Gio has scope to become the next market springer.

Poor Brendan sang in the sing-off on Sunday like a man fully aware of the show’s ruthless machinations and the fact he had been in the Syco sniper’s sights. Like United Vibe he might be offered some respite on Saturday, or might not, but ultimately looks like a dead man walking.