X Factor Switcheroo
It is often a given that a late slot automatically means great news for an XF contestant – closer to the end of the show = more memorable = more chance of harnessing a big vote. Similarly, an early position is usually considered a vulnerable spot. But it is a big mistake to make such assumptions and last night’s X Factor showed us why.
Step forward Carolynne Poole, given what appeared a great position last night singing 12th out of the 13. The alarm bells began ringing before she had sung a note as we noticed she was sandwiched between 2 of the show’s biggest hitters thus far – ‘Frank-Ella’ in 11th & Jahmene up last.
These 2 both had productions and comments that were the proverbial ‘out of the ballpark’ in XF land – for Jahmene layers, by the way, this looked an early Christmas present as it was easily possible to get lays away as low as 5 on Betfair. His vocal inflections will surely start to alienate viewers even quicker than Danyl Johnson’s did, subject of a similar week 1 pimp slot back in 2009. Jahmene’s uncomfortable stage presence is another big negative.
Meanwhile, Carolynne endured a poor edit, the ugly side of her personality shown as she fretted over song choice, swore, and came across like an uptight bride alienating all those around her by demanding everything be right for her big occasion.
The Minaj song was also a pretty ordinary choice, it certainly wasn’t a memorable performance and she then received the sort of faint praise that should set alarm bells ringing.
Basically, everything about Carolynne’s segment encouraged indifference and if this wasn’t troubling enough for her supporters, Dermot proceeded to remind viewers of Ella’s number as she stood beside him on stage. A further de-ramp? Certainly this edit endorsed the feeling the 12 slot had not aided her one iota.
Meanwhile, one of Carolynne’s Overs rivals, Melanie, had the worrying 3 slot to deal with. But after the show’s inauspicious start, with District 3 getting a horrible 1 slot edit, & James hardly setting the place on fire, Melanie arrived on a plinth, and delivered a powerful vocal of a song all X Factor viewers would instantly recognise and that had her mentor standing and applauding afterwards.
They gave her Woodstock styling, impressive staging, and she received glowing approval from the judging panel. We also saw the show paint her as a loving mum once more, her kids present in the studio. We read this as a mechanism used to get viewers to invest in Melanie emotionally.
If Melanie had got Carolynne’s treatment and vice versa, and they switched positions in the running order, we would have grave concerns over Melanie’s future on the show. But the edit Melanie received last night gives clear grounds for optimism.
Where does this leave us in terms of tonight’s potential bottom 2 and 1st elimination? It is far from clear cut and we would still put both Carolynne and Melanie firmly in the mix, and could even envisage a sing-off between the two Overs rivals.
We would certainly be weighing up backing Carolynne and Melanie to be in the bottom 2 if the price is right, the value double figure prices on Carolynne being the first elimination having long dried up – our readers hopefully grabbed some of the 20-1 we highlighted in mid-week.
While we see Carolynne as the more vulnerable of the 2 to find herself in the drop zone based on last night’s edit, it makes trading sense to back Melanie at the widely available 12-1 to be 1st eliminated purely as a cover for Top Overs bets on her.
The 3 Groups had inauspicious nights and they are all in danger too, along with Jade (song choice, staging and styling not good), and maybe even ‘cruise ship’ crooner Chris, courtesy of Louis’s massive kidney punch of a comment.
We are going on intuition only here in saying we think MK1 will more likely avoid bottom 2, after their bigging up as a relevant urban act accompanied by loud audience cheers. District 3 are obviously more vulnerable than Union J given their respective edits, and could continue the trend of death slots ending up in the drop zone in week 1. And if the show succeeds in its mission to get District 3 into the bottom 2, then they are very likely toast.
But given how tight percentages will be among the bottom 6 or so, we would be tempted to lay District 3 to be bottom 2 at anything odds on and cover this by putting them in bottom 2 combos with Carolynne, Melanie and Jade. We’d also consider covering the latter 3 in bottom 2 combos.
After last night, the bookies have reacted by pushing Carolynne out so she is outsider of 4, among the Overs, behind Chris Maloney – correctly predicted here as a shoe-in to be the wildcard winner. So they are in line with our thinking that Carolynne is far from being the alpha Over and looks an also-ran in this category with Kye in the box-seat and Melanie his only potential rival.
So we would overall disagree with the chaps over at sofabet regarding Melanie/Carolynne despite their well-nuanced exposition on last night’s show. The Outright market on Betfair is in agreement with Kye trading at 11.5, Melanie 26, Chris 42 and Carolynne 60 at time of writing. Where do you stand on the great Overs debate?
Rob Furber
Melanie was brilliant. Don’t see how she can be in danger. She was also followed by an ad break which can only be helpful with lines open throughout the show. It’s got to be District3 for the chop. Percentages will be close but I think producers did enough. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either MK1 or Carolynne joining them. Union J would be a surprise but is not impossible. I think the judges’ comments were designed to anger their fans into voting. Also, I don’t think Rylan was on quite late enough to be safe. However, they’re clearly going to give him a pimp slot soon. Perhaps as early as next week.
After last night’s show, I’m on board with you regarding Melanie/Carolynne and also regarding District 3. Carolynne’s late slot looked promising but the song choice could barely have been worse – the whole thing was a wet blanket. I don’t feel the same as you about how she came over in her VT but I agree she’s in grave danger. And yeah, being the quorn in an Ella/Jahmene sandwich is very dangerous for her. I have her down to be bottom 2.
Everyone is all over District 3 to go and to be bottom 2, from the majority of Sofabet commenters to the market in general, but I can’t agree, so I’m with you that they’re a good lay at that price. They’re not comparable with past first-week exiters like FYD, Nu Vibe and the girlbands, they’re telegenic, family-friendly and non-threatening, and they seem to have significant support judging by the stats at creationagency.com and the number of times I’ve noticed them trending recently. I think MK1, Chris and Jade are safe.
Fine article Rob.Have to agree with your take of the Carolynne/Mel situation and feel you have assessed the pro’s and cons better than elsewhere.
Carolynne had a terrible trap draw in between the two “big guns”,her vt was the worst of the night IMO and she has the second highest dislikes/ likes ratio on YouTube views from last night(also nearly bottom on total views).If she does hit the bottom 2 it’s difficult to make a case for her being saved over any act,particularly as the overs now have an extra person with the coronation of the abhorant Shaky.
Thanks for posting Tim & eurovicious. Glad you read things similarly.
In a way, hoping Melanie and Carolynne both avoid bottom 2 as it would be fascinating to see their treatment the following week with a blemish-free record.
Overall, Melanie seems much easier to warm to, & vocally firmly believe she has more gears, if given the chance to showcase different types of song – not just big belters.
Interesting analysis on those YT likes/dislikes, hemsby. Would appear to back up the impression she leaves a lot of viewers cold.
I backed Carolynne to go pre show and was cursing when she on 2nd last, but agree that a forgettable song, performance, vt and being sandwiched between the 2 pimp acts puts her in real danger.
About the only support I could find on twitter for her was from men who wanted to do naughty things to her 😀
I do have Mel in slight danger too, so have had a cover on her @ 14/1
I also agree that D3 are a lay for B2. Plenty of love for them on twitter despite the early slot.
ofc twitter is always going to overstate the support of a boyband, but hopefully in a 1st week vote their teenage fans can push them clear of the danger zone.
Hoping for a late price crash on D3 so an even better value lay – often happens that way.
A feeling in my water the groups will all avoid b2, & with so many runners week 1, odds-on lay of D3 in b2 market the value call.
The price crash is on Carolynne rather than D3.
I hope the money is right.
Wow – just clocked the money on Carolynne. Now she looks a lay for b2!!!
Hope readers got plenty of the 20s Carolynne we flagged up here 🙂
n1 Rob.
Some great calls.
Only 12/1 here and laid some off in the sing-off, but laid D3 B2 too, so a very nice 1st week
Nice work, Mr Leaves 🙂 That article I put together today is a definite high water mark regarding XF analysis, even if I say so myself 😉
Nice to see Carolynne made us all slightly richer, I didn’t believe she would be eliminated but saw the danger of bottom 2 (small bet @7), still think in the same line as Daniel (she would be saved over Melanie for example) but Rylan was bad match for her so we will never know.
There was nothing in the edit, Boki, to encourage the view she was the favoured Over – the draw of 12 was a red herring, & there were many clues she was not favoured at all, as outlined.
Damn there goes my long answer, I didn’t copy/paste the password. Bottom line: I think they didn’t want C to go so early but we agreed she sucked.
Sorry about that Boki. This insanity must end!!! Will aim to get the password protection disabled on Comments – I’m no techie but know a man who is.
It is a high water mark, Rob! Great stuff! I made over €900 tonight from backing Carolynne to go and from laying District 3. Unlike the market and the majority of punters but like you and fiveleaves, I never thought they were in any danger and was happy to lay. People are reading far too much into the draw – 12 for Carolynne was a red herring as you say, as was 1 for District 3. Carolynne was nobbled using diabolical song choice/arrangement and standout acts either side.
Brilliant trading eurovicious. Let’s hope this series continues in the same vein 🙂
For me, I called District 3 because of both the death slot and the fact they bought One Direction on stage immediately after in a very random move. I’m not convinced they wanted the result they got and instead wanted a Rylan/District 3 sing-off.
However, anyone with half a brain should have seen EXACTLY how the sing-off was going to go when Rylan ended up in the Bottom 2. He’s both this year’s Token Knobhead and also Token Public Hate Figure. The X Factor is a pantomime, and he is the villain.
MK1 are going to have a good run. The Radio 1, Capital FM and Kiss listeners will LOVE them. The 13-19 age bracket are loving that sort of music at the moment. They are fine.
The BIG surprise for me though was not to see Little Mix on the results programme. The incumbent winner appearing on the first live weekend is almost a tradition now, or I thought it was!
Hi James,
Thanks for posting 🙂 I love your Saturday morning cooking show btw!
In such a big field there was a clear value angle in opposing D3 to be bottom 2 at odds on. They also generated plenty of heat around the good looking white boybands this year, what with name changes, Twitter campaigns to build their follower numbers, & upbeat VT segments so it was also easy to see how the tweenie vote would be more than enough for both of them in week 1. MK1 also have a clearly defined niche as this year’s urban act so it was easy to see them avoid the bottom 2.
As for the sing-off, everything we know about these shows told us Rylan would be saved but given the way Louis prevaricated & initially said he was sending home Rylan, not to mention the fact it was Carolynne who sang 2nd left plenty of room for doubt this time around.
Keep reading & posting – we aim to flag up decent priced winners here – with an emphasis on ‘value’ – & have a great track record such as Little Mix recommended at 66-1 e/w last year, & all prices down.
It amazes me you can still argue that Carolynne was the chosen over, Boki.
Lukewarm comments, poor song choice and vt.
The only potential positive they handed her was the 2nd last spot and that proved to be a red herring, given she was sandwiched between the 2 pimp acts.
Hi fiveleaves, I don’t think she was the chosen one (chosen for what btw), alpha last standing over (if you meant that) for me is Kye. My thought is that she would be saved against Melanie (who was also sandwiched between two ‘strong’ acts) and possibly Chris, so disposable but less than the other overs.
And btw I always thought she would poll no votes (unlike Melanie who has some appeal) so in my prediction list I had:
3. Kye
8. Melanie
10. wildcard = Chris
12. Carolynne